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Inflation continues to cast a threatening shadow over the United States and Credit Suisse expects the Fed to change its interest rate strategy.
The global investment bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rate hikes ahead of schedule.
Their speculation stems from the decline in inflation in the country.
Jonathan Golub, the company’s US chief equity strategist, thinks the Fed will launch a strong market breakout.
“This is actually what’s being priced into the market broadly,” said Golub.
“Every one of us sees when we go to the gas station that the price of gasoline is down, and oil is down. We see it even with food.”
“So, it really is showing up in the data already. And, that’s a really big potential positive.”
A note has surfaced giving an overview of this week’s August CPI and PPI data, and the chief equity strategist has already noted when inflation could potentially “collapse”.
Golub says that will happen within the next 12 to 18 months.
“Futures indicate that Food and Energy prices should fall -5.7%and -11.8% by year end 2023, while Goods inflation has declined from 12.3% to 7.0% since February,” he explained.
“Over the past year, Services and Rents are up less than Headline CPI (5.5% and 5.8% vs. 8.5%).”
The Federal Reserve
Jonathan Golub expects the Federal Reserve to halt rate hikes as soon as he sees signs of a slump in inflation.
He has set a calendar for the next four or six months.
“The market believes that come the first quarter, if we continue to go on this glide path where things renormalize, that they’re going to either pause or signal that they might pause,” Golub explained.
“If they do that, the stock market wants to move ahead of it. The stock market is really going to take off.”
Credit Suisse’s Chief Equity Strategist believes this is the best strategic time to seek opportunities.
Golub pointed to consumer goods, industrial companies, integrated oil producers and refineries.
“Valuations on the market are somewhat between fair and inexpensive right now,” he said.
“Meaning there’s more upside from p/e [price to earnings] multiples.”
Jonathan Golub’s year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4,300, up about 5% from the close on Monday.
After the past two months, the index has risen by nearly 8%. However, the S&P is still around 15% off its all-time high.